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Thread: The Impact of Fate
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26th October 2011, 16:32 #1
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The Impact of Fate
Been doing a lot of research over the last few months in my spare time over F1 in days gone by, and had a thought about how different the history of F1 would be without the numerous acts of fate we have endured over the 60+ years.
Consider these examples, and potentially how different F1's results would have been:
Jim Clark, 1968 - Died whilst at the peak of his abilities, with Hill winning the title at the end of that year, surely had Clark not died he would have won the 1968 title, and then, judging by car performance, could have won in 1970 and 1972 - he would still only have been mid-late 30's which was normal in those days. Would Jochen Rindt have joined Lotus at all without Clark's death as well? And would Clark have continued with Lotus for his whole career?
Francois Cevert, 1973 - Was matching Stewart at the end of 1973 before his tragic death. In 1974 he would have been team leader - surely notching up more wins and potentially moving on to a Ferrari or McLaren in the coming years with his talent - the knock on effect on which would have displaced drivers such as Regazzoni or Mass for example.
Ronnie Peterson, 1978 - Sadly died at Monza, could have added another win before end of the season and was due to lead McLaren in 1979. How would he have fared there? Immensely talented but his performances were a bit up and down over his career. John Watson and Alain Prost were at McLaren in 1980, would it have been Watson who did not drive for McLaren, or would Prost not get his debut with McLaren?
Stefan Bellof, 1985 - Only two years into his career, I believe I am right in thinking he had a contract for Ferrari for 1986 before his death. Ferrari's 1986 drivers were Stefan Johansson and Michele Alboreto, and the car was not great. However, the 1987 car was better. Would Berger have joined Ferrari in 1987 if Bellof & Alboreto was the line up. It could have been Alboreto was replaced for Berger, instead of Johansson. Bellof looked in the Senna mould, could he have joined Williams or McLaren later?
Robert Kubica, 2011 - A modern one for you. Of course, Robert is thankfully still with us and on the mend. His life is not in danger, but is his career? How would he have performed in the Renault in 2011? Heidfeld would not have a final podium to his name. And going forward, Kubica was rumoured to Ferrari for either 2012 or 2013. Will this happen for him, even if he does return?
I've only scratched the surface really here - what about Peter Collins, Chris Bristow, Lorenzo Bandini, Piers Courage, Jochen Rindt, Ignazio Giunti, Roger Williamson, Tom Pryce, Gilles Villeneuve, Elio de Angelis & of course Ayrton Senna?
And then drivers who have had non-fatal but career-interrupting incidents. Are they ever 100% the same as they were before the crash - for example Niki Lauda, Olivier Panis, Felipe Massa ?
I am struck by how much effect fate can have over a sport like this.Niente è vero, tutto è permesso
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26th October 2011, 20:09 #2
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If Schumacher and Hill hadn't have collided in 1994 at Adelaide then Hill would be WDC in 1994&1996, probably wouldn't have been sacked my Williams for 1997, so Damon Hill could potentially have been a triple WDC.
Tazio 14/3/2015: I'll give every member on this forum 1,000.00 USD if McLaren fails to podium this season!
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26th October 2011, 20:56 #3
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Originally Posted by henners88
Although I still believe Schumacher would have won in 1995.Tazio 14/3/2015: I'll give every member on this forum 1,000.00 USD if McLaren fails to podium this season!
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26th October 2011, 22:02 #4
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Monza 1988 for me seems almost religious in its series of coincidences.
With Senna and Prost well on the way to winning every single race for McLaren-Honda, Enzo Ferrari dies a few weeks before Monza, Ferrari's home race. Prost and Senna romp off in the lead, then Prost has an engine failure. Doesn't matter as Senna is on the verge of clinching victory anyway when he trips over Jean-Louis Schlesser and gets knocked out, handing Ferrari a home victory and the only non-McLaren winner of the season.
McLaren-Honda therefore were denied a clean sweep of the entire season at Monza thanks to Jean-Louis Schlesser whose uncle Jo Schlesser died in the Honda RA302 back in 1968, an accident that partially convinced Honda to withdraw first time round from F1.
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27th October 2011, 07:20 #5
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Originally Posted by Brown, Jon BrowPlease 'like' our facebook page http://www.facebook.com/motorsportforums
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27th October 2011, 08:14 #6
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Originally Posted by Bezza
Ronnie was not known for his ability as a test/development driver and given the cars McLaren produced in 1979/80 he may have experienced much as he did while with Tyrrell. Of course he would have extracted the maximum out of the M28 & M29 but I wouldn't see him developing those cars into front runners.
I seem to recall reading that Peterson was talking of retirement and perhaps McLaren would have been his last team in F1. With that in mind, and given the way McLaren performed with Watson/Tambay, maybe Ronnie would have walked away into safe retirement at the end of 1979.Riccardo Patrese - 256GPs 1977-1993
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27th October 2011, 10:35 #7
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Originally Posted by henners88
By the way, I don't think 1997 Benetton would have been uncompetitive if Team Schumacher had all stayed there. Pretty much the opposite. :
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27th October 2011, 11:25 #8
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Originally Posted by ArrowsFA1
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27th October 2011, 12:27 #9
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Originally Posted by Bezza
As far as Cevert he could certainly have won the '74 title, because if you remember Scheckter was equal first in the title going into the final rounds in the same car and he was a rookie. The question is whether Cevert would have been as quick if he didn't have the motivation and help of Stewart alongside. Beyond that season I'm not sure. Tyrrell basically started to lose their way after that and he would probably have spent too long there. Maybe a move to McLaren or Ferrari would have happened later.
Bellof was part of the works Porsche sportscar team so it's likely the link to McLaren would have put him in one for '87 or something. Ultimately he would have probably wound up in Ferrari or Lotus. Remember in that particular era there were a lot of top drivers around and hardly any good cars, you basically had McLaren, Williams, and then Lotus and Ferrari, and then on the driver front you had Prost, Senna, Mansell, Piquet, Alboreto, so there was a lack of seats for the talent around.
Of the rest you mentioned: Collins should have won the '56 title but handed it (and his car) to Fangio so there you have it. I'm not sure he could have achieved more than he did. It might have been interesting to see what he could have done with the '61 Ferrari, he probably would have been champion then. I honestly don't know much about Bristow or Giunti so I won't comment there. Personally I believe Bandini achieved all he was ever going to. He could match Surtees on the day but not often enough to be a champion. Courage was good, but even by reading books about him he seemed a bit of a wild thing and car breaker. Rindt, hard to tell but probably would have won again in '72, but he was thinking hard about retiring and about making his own team with Ecclestone, so I don't think his mind was completely right anymore. Having read the book "The Lost Generation" I definately think Williamson could have been a big player in F1, he was certainly quick enough, but with who I'm not sure. I think he had a few deals in place at the time of his death. Tom Pryce was very talented, more than even books from the period let on, but he wasted it sitting at Shadow too long, he should have moved long before he died. If he had, then maybe we could have seen more and could have been able to tell. Villeneuve was brilliant to watch, but if the car was off the pace he was nowhere, he would drive the wheels off it but couldn't put together a championship fight. Him in the 1983 car would have been interesting, who knows, maybe he could have been champion then, but they would have also had to deal with Brabham cheating with the fuel in the end. De Angelis was a personal favourite of mine but I think the move to Brabham was a career mistake and I doubt he would have recovered much from it; remember that was his 8th season in F1 by then and it wasn't common to go much beyond 10. As for Senna, a little while ago I came across a website that gave a whole analysis of what might have happened had Senna not died based on a lot of logical argument of how the Williams performed after that. It's more than likely he would have won the '94, '95, '96, and '97 titles and then retired. That would have given him 7 titles, but somehow, given the level of respect he had for Fangio, I think he might have retired at 5 so as not to beat the legend.CMR4L titles: 2, RBR MF Cup titles: 2
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27th October 2011, 12:47 #10
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Originally Posted by Bruce D
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